SEDAP: Research Paper Abstracts (2001)

  1. The Consequences of Caregiving: Does Employment Make a Difference?
    Candace L. Kemp and Carolyn J. Rosenthal

  2. While a number of studies have examined the consequences of caregiving among employed women, surprisingly little research has explicitly compared how consequences differ between employed and not employed women. Moreover, very little research in this area has distinguished between part-time and full- time employment.

    This paper examines these issues drawing on the 1996 General Social Survey of Canada. The sample for this study consists of women aged 25 to 64 who reported providing care to one or more people aged 65+ because of a long-term physical disability (n=426). Three employment status groups (full-time, part-time and not employed) are compared on positive consequences, burden, guilt, job adjustment, postponed opportunities, and social and economic consequences.

    Results reveal significant differences between the three employment categories indicating that employment, both full and part-time, is associated with higher burden, guilt and social and economic consequences.

  3. Fraud in Ethnocultural Seniors' Communities
    Peter J.D. Donahue
  4. The main goals of this study are:

    1. to define the scope and nature of fraudulent practices to which older adults from selected ethnocultural communities (namely, Chinese, Hispanic, Portuguese, and South Asian) are exposed;
    2. to determine the response of those adults to exploitative practices;
    3. to identify those who are at greatest risk;
    4. to disseminate the findings.

    The project included focus group interviews with older men and women in the Greater Toronto Area, as well as with service providers. The findings are similar for all groups: both the nature and scope of fraudulent practices in these communities and the factors contributing to vulnerability closely parallel the experience of Canadian-born seniors. The study concludes with recommendations for fraud prevention.

  5. Social-psychological and Structural Factors Influencing the Experience of Chronic Disease: A focus on Individuals with Severe Arthritis
    Peri J. Ballantyne, Gillian A. Hawker, Detelina Radoeva
  6. In-depth personal interviews were conducted with 29 men and women with severe arthritis of the hip or knee. All respondents had been identified by medical experts as having demonstrable need for total joint arthroplasty, but in assessment in another study, had stated an unwillingness to consider the procedure. In interviews, we explored 1) current self reported health status and co-morbidities; 2) features and functions of the informal and formal support network; and 3) general orientations to aging, illness and independence, to examine the influence of these on participants' strategies for coping with severe arthritis and their views of treatment options.

    We present a multi-level model of the social-interactional and social-structural features of lives in which the experience of arthritis and responses to it are contextualized. Interviews reveal a complex set of experiences and responses: participants frequently reject the medicalization of their arthritis; they normalize the experience of functional decline (ie: they modify expectations to fit their capacity), or define it as age normative; they draw on a broad set of previous experiences from the lay health care system as well as from the formal medical care system to define an appropriate strategy of coping for the "here and now". The discussion focuses on the distinction between objectively assessed disease and subjectively experienced illness, and the implications of this distinction for medical practice.

  7. The Extended Self: Illness Experiences of Older Married Arthritis Sufferers
    Peri J. Ballantyne, Gillian A. Hawker, Detelina Radoeva
  8. A large epidemiological survey evaluating the extent of arthritis in the population aged 55+ uncovered a discrepancy between medically assessed need for and patient willingness to consider treatment involving total joint arthroplasty. In an attempt to understand this discrepancy, we conducted a qualitative study to assess patients' experiences of the disease. This paper is focused on how the quality of the marital relationship influences the everyday functioning of arthritis sufferers. Our results suggest that in addition to the individual's functional capacity, the couple's relational and functional behaviours influence the meaning of the disease and an individual's health care decision-making.

  9. A Comparison of Alternative Methods to Model Endogeneity in Count Models. An Application to the Demand for Health Care and Health Insurance Choice.
    Martin Schellhorn
  10. Several estimators have been suggested to tackle the problem of endogenous regressors and selectivity in count regression models. They differ in the structure and the degree of parametrization of the underlying models. The estimation of health services utilization conditional on the choice of different forms of health insurance provides a classical example of such problems.

    In Switzerland, basic health insurance is mandatory and each individual is insured separately. The insurance premium varies by region of residence but is independent of income and risk. The insured face a minimal annual deductible for ambulatory health services. Annually, they are given a choice of higher deductibles to reduce their insurance premium by a regulated percentage. The choice of a higher deductible sets incentives for a more cautious utilization of health services. Clearly, the choice is made based on expected health service utilization. The effect of the choice of a higher than the minimal deductible on the number of physician visits is analyzed. A matching estimator, a GMM estimator, two-stage method of moments estimators which account for selectivity and endogenous switching count regression models are applied to data from the 1997 Swiss Health Survey. Incentive-induced behavioral changes are disentangled from selection effects.

    The main finding is that most of the observed lower utilization for individuals with a high insurance deductible is caused by self- selection of individuals into the respective insurance contracts which either differ in their preferences or are healthier in unobserved aspects of their health status.

  11. Wealth Accumulation of US Households: What Do We Learn from the SIPP Data?
    Vincent Hildebrand
  12. In this paper, I estimate, for US households, age-wealth profiles which allow for cohort effects. I use these to reexamine one of the central empirical propositions of simple life-cycle models: dissaving after retirement. The analysis employs a data set which has not been previously examined in this way: the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The main regression results suggest that elderly households do not dissave after retirement. However, an examination of the distribution of wealth at retirement reveals that most households have accumulated very little wealth from which to dissave. Given that about 40% of households are not covered by any occupational pension, social security payments are the main source of retirement income for a large number of households. Even more than the absence of post-retirement dissaving, it is this overall lack of pre-retirement saving which seems to contradict life-cycle models.

  13. Pension Portability and Labour Mobility in the United States. New Evidence from SIPP Data.
    Vincenzo Andrietti and Vincent Hildebrand
  14. We explore the role of employer provided pensions on job mobility choices using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Defined benefit plans are found to have a significant negative effect on mobility. However, we find no significant evidence that the potential pension portability losses deter job mobility among workers covered by these plans. We also find that the portability policy change implemented by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 had only minor effects on mobility. Puzzlingly, defined contribution plans, although fully portable, are found to have an impact similar to defined benefit plans. Evidence of compensation premiums accruing to workers in pension, union and health insurance covered jobs supports the view that workers are less likely to leave "good jobs".

  15. Exploring the Effects of Population Change on the Costs of Physician Services
    Frank T. Denton, Amiram Gafni, and Byron G. Spencer
  16. The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such services. The principal data set (unpublished, for Ontario) provides information about payments to physicians, by age and sex of patients. Using it, we derive age/cost profiles for 19 categories of physicians. Adopting an index-theoretic framework, we then use the profiles to analyse the "pure" effects of population change (historical or projected) on physician costs, and to decompose the effects into population growth effects and population aging effects. We present calculations for Ontario, for the populations of 15 industrialized countries, and for four theoretical populations.

  17. Reflexive Planning for Later Life: A Conceptual Model and Evidence from Canada
    Margaret A. Denton, Susan French, Amiram Gafni, Anju Joshi, Carolyn Rosenthal, Sharon Webb
  18. In this paper, we present a conceptual model to describe an individual's preparations for later life. Situated in the life course perspective, this model invites a comprehensive and systematic study of later life planning. It describes a dynamic process that portrays the interplay between social structure and human agency. Through its consideration of collective preparations (the public protection programs offered by the state), individual preparations (financial and non-financial), and the interplay between them, this model provides fresh insight into the existing literature on retirement planning, the timing of retirement, savings, and consumption patterns in later life.

    Moreover, the model may be used to structure research questions, to guide policy decision making and to point the direction for the design and content of future research studies. While the purpose of this paper is primarily the development of a conceptual model, we illustrate the model using the results of a self-completion semi-structured questionnaire on this topic that was completed by a convenience sample of 240 seniors in Canada. We conclude by suggesting a number of research questions that may be generated from the model.

  19. Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory
    Frank T. Denton, Christine H. Feaver, and Byron G. Spencer
  20. Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.

  21. Linear Public Goods Experiments: A Meta-Analysis
    Jennifer Zelmer
  22. The objective of this paper is to use meta-analysis techniques to assess the impact of various factors on the extent of cooperation in standard linear public goods experiments using the voluntary contributions mechanism. Potentially relevant experiments were identified through searches of EconLit, the Internet Documents in Economics Access Service (IDEAS), and a survey article. A total of 349 potentially relevant studies were identified. Of these, 28 (representing a total of 711 groups of participants) met the inclusion criteria. Data were abstracted from these studies using a standardized protocol. Results were analyzed using weighted ordinary least squares. Average group efficiency was the dependent variable.

    The major results are that:

    (A number of other factors were not identified as significant.) The meta-analysis results parallel several key findings from previous literature reviews. In addition, they offer parameter estimates and an analysis of significance based on the totality of the available research evidence. More consistent reporting of the results of experiments would greatly improve the ability to conduct this type of research.
  23. Local Planning for an Aging Population in Ontario: Two Case Studies
    Lynda M. Hayward
  24. Local planning for an aging population in Ontario is multi-sectorial, involving a variety of policy initiatives and a complex funding system. It is important to understand what planning bodies have jurisdiction over issues associated with aging in the community, the extent to which such issues are acknowledged and acted upon, and how these planning initiatives come together in a local context. This paper examines planning activity related to aging issues in two contrasting upper-tier municipalities, Simcoe County and Metropolitan Toronto (prior to amalgamation), as case studies. Planning documents from the upper-tier municipalities, their constituent lower-tier municipalities, and corresponding District Health Councils were reviewed.

    On the surface, the aging of the populations of these two municipalities appeared to be much the same as for the province as a whole. However, the context in which these populations were aging was very different, not just at the upper-tier level, but also between and within their lower-tier municipalities. The specific aging related issues identified by the local planning bodies and the approaches used to address them varied considerably, often at a very local, neighbourhood level. It was found that in the absence of other contextual information, the proportion of the elderly in the population per se can be a poor indicator of the specific planning issues which develop.

  25. Management Experience and Diversity in an Ageing Organisation: A Microsimulation Analysis
    Ted Wannell and Martin Gravel
  26. The ageing of the Canadian population is a well recognized phenomenon and has received considerable policy research attention, particularly in the health and public pension domains. Very little work has been focused on the impacts of ageing at the organisational level. Foot and Venne studied the advancement of the baby boom through traditional organisational hierarchies, noting its impacts on human resource policies that encourage horizontal career development. Saba et al looked more particularly at the management of older professionals in the Quebec public service, finding that employee recognition was an important human resource strategy for motivating this group. We extend these studies further along the ageing ladder -- to the point where retirement and replacement become the major concerns.

    Looking at the management hierarchy within Statistics Canada, we use a microsimulation model first to estimate the expected level of retirements over the next 10 years. We then detail the adjustments to promotion and hiring rates required to replace outgoing managers. We then examine simulated microdata to estimate the experience effects of increasing turnover. Finally, we use the demographic features of the model to examine whether the increasing turnover is likely to increase the representation of women and visible minorities among Statistics Canada managers.

    Given the assumptions outlined in the paper, we find that increasing turnover rates in the next 10 years will generally not reduce management experience to below recently observed levels. We also find that given equal promotion rates for men and women, the representation rate of women among Statistics Canada managers is likely to increase rapidly in coming years. On the other hand, visible minority representation among managers will likely stall for several years, even with proactive recruitment and advancement policies.

  27. Resilience Indicators of Post Retirement Well-Being
    Elsa Marziali and Peter Donahue
  28. This study compares and contrasts criteria for determining how individuals cope with adverse life events during the aging process. From a pool of 140 interviews with older men and women who had experienced a significantly stressful life event (either widowhood or involuntary retirement), a cohort of 26 subject interviews were selected. In random order, interviews were rated on two dimensions: poor versus good financial status, and positive versus negative appraisals of stress events. Interviews continued to be rated until 13 met criteria for successful outcomes (good financial status and positive appraisals of experienced stress) and 13 more met criteria for unsuccessful outcomes (poor financial status and negative appraisals of stress). A second rater, blind to the initial classification, coded and classified the interviews on positive versus negative indicators of the availability of supportive interpersonal relationships .

    There was 69% agreement between the two classification systems on successful versus unsuccessful outcomes. On eight cases the raters disagreed in a consistent fashion; the first rater classified all eight cases as unsuccessful in contrast to the second rater who rated the same cases as successful. These eight cases were reassessed using an expanded coding system that targets indicators of resilience as predictors of well being. This descriptive reanalysis of the cases showed that all of the subjects were well aware of their limited financial status but had a balanced appraisal of life challenges overall. Analyses of their life narratives showed evidence of resilience (self-reliance, availability of close interpersonal relationships, accommodative modes of coping, internal control, perseverance, viewed change as a challenge, and a spiritual convergent view of mind, body, and soul in the face of adversity).

    In summary, while poor financial status has negative consequences for coping with major life transitions, aging individuals who are resilient and hardy and who apply a spiritual lens for understanding the meanings of adversity show greater capacity for achieving and maintaining well-being.

  29. Continuity or Change? Older People in Three Urban Areas
    Judith Phillips, Miriam Bernard, Chris Phillipson, Jim Ogg
  30. The post war period has witnessed considerable changes affecting family structures and social relationships both within, and between, the generations. Recent research has examined the impact of these changes on the lives of older people living in three contrasting areas of England: Bethnal Green (a deprived, ethnically diverse, inner city are of London with a history of transient populations), Wolverhampton (an industrial and multi-cultural Midlands Metropolitan Borough, which experienced substantial redevelopment and slum clearance) and Woodford (a relatively affluent, ageing suburb in North East London). Against a background of growing concern about the increasing numbers of older people, these three areas provided the locations for a number of classic community studies undertaken in the 1940s and 50s: The Family Life of Old People (Townsend, 1957), Family and Class in a London Suburb (Willmott and Young, 1960), and The Social Medicine of Old Age (Sheldon, 1948). The original studies examined the thesis that, in the context of a developing welfare state, families were leaving the old to fend for themselves. The reality, however, was somewhat different as the rich material about the social and family networks of elderly people was to demonstrate.

    The focus of the paper is on reporting some of the key changes and continuities in intergenerational contact and support between the baseline studies and research undertaken in the mid 1990s in the three areas. Using both survey data and case study material, ways in which intergenerational support and care is exchanged, reciprocated and managed will be discussed. Particular reference is made to mother- daughter relationships, which highlight continuity in relation to the importance of this relationship within the older person's network, but also illustrates change in the way this is experienced by both older and younger generations.

  31. Intracohort Income Status Maintenance: An Analysis of the Later Life Course
    Steven G. Prus
  32. This paper examines the extent to which an individual's income status position relative to others in one's own cohort is maintained over the later life course. Changes in the income status of individuals are estimated within a synthetic cohort. Using a series of cross-sectional datafiles from about every fifth Survey of Consumer Finances starting in 1974, the findings show that individuals born between 1924 and 1928 with early life socio-economic status advantages, namely high education, improve their absolute and relative income status position vis--vis others in their own cohort with status disadvantages from ages 46 to 64. Over the ages of 65 to 74, the pattern of economic well-being of individuals with status advantages and disadvantages reflects an income status convergence. Because Canada's old-age public welfare state is relatively well-developed in terms of comprehensiveness and generosity, it does a good job at countering the effects of status background characteristics on the distribution of income in old age; that is, it substantially weakens the relationship between education and income as individuals enter old age. In absence of these programs (i.e. up to age 64), the relative position of those with high education and other advantaged groups is strengthened.

  33. Tax-Preferred Savings Accounts and Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence on RRSP Participation
    Kevin Milligan
  34. The percentage of Canadian with earned income who contributed to a Registered Retirement Savings Plan increased from 18.7 per cent in 1982 to 46.0 per cent in 1996. This period also saw many changes to the income tax structure. Using household expenditure survey data, I examine the influence of taxes on the decision to contribute to Registered Retirement Savings Plans. I improve on existing work by identifying the tax effect from within jurisdiction variation through time, rather than cross-sectional variation alone. I find that taxes do play a role in the contribution decision, but the effect of taxes is much smaller than suggested by the existing literature. A 10 percentage point increase in the marginal tax rate is estimated to increase the probability of participation by 8 per cent. This suggests that increases in marginal tax rates can explain only 5.1 per cent of the increase in Registered Retirement Savings Plan participation between 1982 and 1996. A carryforward mechanism for unused contribution room was introduced in 1991. I find evidence that the sensitivity of participation to future marginal tax rates increased after the introduction of the carryforward. This is consistent with the predictions of the model.

  35. Cohort Survival Analysis is Not Enough: Why Local Planners Need to Know More About the Residential Mobility of the Elderly
    Lynda M. Hayward and N. Michael Lazarowich
  36. The residential mobility choices of the elderly (aging-in-place, local moves, or migration) have very different policy implications forming a dynamic system of inter-related issues that present planners with a number of dilemmas which are particularly sensitive to local context. These include competing models of care and service delivery, provision of appropriate housing, physically and socially supportive local environments, community development, relocation services, housing specialization and age integration, the introduction of housing options within neighbourhoods, population redistribution, economic development, social integration, and localized differences in the demand for services. Local planners need to move beyond simple estimates of future demand based expected numbers and present use patterns, to examine the possible impact of these issues on the integration of an aging population within their communities.

  37. Unemployment and Health: Contextual Level Influences on the Production of Health in Populations
    François Béland, Stephen Birch, Greg Stoddart
  38. While there is a large and growing literature investigating the relationship between an individuals' employment status and his or her health, considerably less is known about the effect on this relationship of the context in which unemployment occurs. The aim of this paper is to test for the presence and nature of contextual effects in the ways unemployment and health are related, based on a simple underlying model of stress, social support and health using a large population health survey. An individual's health can be influenced directly by own exposure to unemployment and by exposure to unemployment in the individual's context, and indirectly by the effects these exposures have on the relationship between other health determinants and health. Based on this conceptualization an empirical model, using multi-level analysis, is formulated that identifies a five -stage process for exploring these complex pathways through which unemployment affects health.

    Results showed that the association of individual unemployment with perceived health is statistically significant. Nevertheless, this study did not provide evidence to support the hypothesis that the association of unemployment with health status depends upon whether the experience of unemployment is shared with people living in the same environment.. Above all, this study demonstrates both the subtlety and complexity of individual and contextual level influences on the health of individuals. Our results caution against simplistic interpretations of the unemployment-health relationship and reinforce the importance of using multi-level statistical methods for investigation of it.

  39. The Timing and Duration of Women's Life Course Events: A Study of Mothers With at Least Two Children
    Karen M. Kobayashi, Anne Martin-Matthews, Carolyn J. Rosenthal, and Sarah H. Matthews
  40. This study examines the incidence and duration of women's life course events, specifically childbearing, by generational age structure within the family, birth cohort, educational status, and place of birth. Data from the 1995 General Social Survey (GSS) of Canada is used to estimate the incidence and socio-demographic correlates of age-structured families-- age-condensed, normative, and age-gapped according to the mother's age at the birth of her first child.

    The results indicate that less than 10% of women with at least two children (N = 1,800) experience entrance into motherhood as a late life course event (e.g., at 30 years of age or older) as opposed to an early or "on-time" transition. Further, the mean birth interval is longer and family size is larger for age-condensed mothers versus normative and age- gapped mothers. Cohort differences regarding the incidence and duration of family life course events are also notable: older cohorts of women (1915-1930 and 1931-1946) have longer birth intervals and larger families than do women in younger cohorts (1946-1960 and 1961-1976). For level of educational attainment, women with less education marry at younger ages and have their first child at younger ages than their more educated counterparts. Finally, Canadian-born women marry and have their first child at younger ages compared to foreign-born women. Findings are discussed in the context of the literature on "age deadlines" and women's family life course events.

  41. Age-Gapped and Age-Condensed Lineages: Patterns of Intergenerational Age Structure Among Canadian Families
    Anne Martin-Matthews, Karen Midori Kobayashi, Carolyn J. Rosenthal, and Sarah H. Matthews
  42. This paper examines intergenerational connections within Canadian families. Its focus is on intergenerational age structure, the interval or "gap" in years that separates one generation from the next. Intergenerational age structure is measured in terms of the age of a mother at the birth of her first child. Using data from the 1995 General Social Survey of Canada, the study examines the socio-demographic characteristics of women (n=404) in three- and four- generation families (lineages) that are age-condensed (small age distances between generations that are the result of early fertility) and those that are age-gapped (with large age distances between generations that are the result of late fertility patterns).

    Across two generations of women, there is a striking similarity in the distributions of age at first birth with just under one-third of the sample having early fertility, just over one-half falling into a normative or "on-time" category, and one-seventh having delayed fertility. However, when matched pairs of mothers and daughters are compared across generations, age-condensed and age-gapped lineage patterns show considerable variability. Although just under one-half of mother-daughter dyads show lineage consistency in family age structure across three generations (most typically in age-condensed/age-condensed or normative/normative age structures), low percentages of women whose family of origin was age-gapped repeat that age structure pattern in their own families of procreation. Socio-demographic factors such as mother's and daughter's age, family size, age at first marriage, and level of education are associated with lineage continuity and discontinuity in family age structure.

  43. The Relationship between Age, Socio-Economic Status, and Health among Adult Canadians
    Steven G. Prus
  44. The relationship between socio-economic status and the health status of Canadians is well documented. However, the dynamics of this relationship over the adult life course remain largely unexplored. This paper uses data from the 1998-1999 Canadian National Population Health Survey to examine differences in global measures of health status (functional health, activity restriction, and self-rated health) between education groups across age categories. The results show that the gap in health status across education groups varies over the life course. The strength of the relationship increases from ages 25 to 64, and then decreases in later life. The data also show that education- based differences in health over the adult years almost disappear when controlling for economic, lifestyle, and psychosocial resources. Implications of these findings for health-related policy and methodological issues are discussed.

  45. Measuring Differences in the Effect of Social Resource Factors on the Health of Elderly Canadian Men and Women
    Steven G. Prus and Ellen Gee
  46. It is well-documented that differences in the exposure to social resources play a significant role in influencing gender inequalities in health in old age. It is less clear in the literature if social factors have a differential impact on the health of older men and women. This paper examines gender differences in the patterns of social predictors of health among elderly persons. Using data from the 1998-1999 Canadian National Population Health Survey, the findings show that differences in socio-economic, lifestyle, and psychosocial resources contribute to variation in the health status of elderly persons in terms of self-rated health and functional and chronic health. Many of these predictors of health, however, differ in their effect on health between elderly males and females. The impact of age and exercise on health is larger for older women compared to older men, yet income, smoking, level of social support, and distress have a greater effect on health for older men than they do for older women. These gender differences have important policy implications for health-care promotion and delivery services. Health policy needs to reflect the underlying social determinants of health, and their differential influence on the health of elderly men and women.

  47. APOCALYPSE NO: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems
    R.G. Evans, K.M. McGrail, S.G. Morgan, M.L. Barer, C. Hertzman
  48. Illness increases with age. All else equal, an older population has greater needs for health care. This logic has led to dire predictions of skyrocketing costs-- "apocalyptic demography". Yet numerous studies have shown that aging effects are relatively small, and all else is not equal.

    Cost projections rest on specific assumptions about trends in age- specific morbidity and health care use that are far from self-evident. Sharply contrasting assumptions, for example, are made by Fries, who foresees a "compression of morbidity" and falling needs. Long term trends in health care use in British Columbia show minimal effects of population aging, but major effects, up and down, from changes in age- specific use patterns. Why then is the demographic apocalypse story so persistent, despite numerous contrary studies? It serves identifiable economic interests.

  49. The Education Premium in Canada and the United States
    J.B. Burbidge, L. Magee, A.L. Robb
  50. It is well known that in the United States the education premium--the ratio of the earnings of university graduates to the earnings of high school graduates--has risen sharply in the last twenty years. Some Canadian economists and policy makers presume the same fact holds in Canada. Since so much of modern growth theory and micro and macroecomomic policy turns on the education premium, it is important for social scientists and policy makers to know what has actually happened to the education premium. This paper argues that on the basis of available evidence over the last twenty years the premium has been constant or has fallen in Canada.

  51. Student Enrolment and Faculty Recruitment in Ontario: The Double Cohort, the Baby Boom Echo, and the Aging of University Faculty
    Byronn G. Spencer
  52. Two demographic events will have significant effects on the Ontario university system this decade. The first is the growth in the population of student age, which will increase the demand on the system. That increase is associated with the baby boom echo, but it will be exacerbated by the so-called "double cohort" (which will see two classes of secondary school graduates enter university in the same year) and by the trend towards higher enrolment rates. The second event -- the retirement of faculty hired in the late 1960s and the 1970s to meet the demands associated with the baby boom itself -- will reduce the supply of services that the university system can provide.. The purpose of this paper is to attach some numbers to these two effects and, in particular, to anticipate the need to recruit new faculty. The projections suggest that the minimum need for net recruitment of faculty by the end of this decade is equal to at least half of the current complement, and it may be considerably more.

  53. The Social and Demographic Contours of Contemporary Grandparenthood: Mapping Patterns in Canada and the United States
    Candace L. Kemp
  54. Although there exists a growing body of literature dedicated to understanding the complexities of grandparenting, few researchers have documented the demographic patterns and social trends that encompass contemporary grandparenthood. Concomitantly, in instances where researchers have described such patterns, data are largely derived from studies profiling American populations. This paper, therefore, examines social trends in grandparenthood and outlines the demographic context within which Canadians participate in grandparent-grandchild relationships. Drawing on nationally representative samples and data derived from both the 1990 and 1995 General Social Surveys of Canada, this study analyzes patterns influencing grandparenthood such as grandparents' rates of survival, the prevalence of grandparenthood, multiple generation families, step-grandparenthood and the availability of grandchildren. In addition, analysis considers rates of intergenerational cohabitation and surrogate parenting as well as grandparents' participation in additional social roles.

  55. Changing Income Inequality and the Elderly in Canada 1991-1996: Provincial Metropolitan and Local Dimensions
    Eric G. Moore and Michael A. Pacey
  56. Recently, much attention has been given to income inequality in industrialized societies, in part because of the empirical evidence linking high levels of income inequality with high mortality, morbidity and other social ills (Wilkinson, 1996). Analyses of these relations originally focused on national figures, but more recent work has explored these linkages at subnational scales -- for state, provincial and metropolitan entities. At the same time, other studies have documented the recent increases in income inequality during the 1990s in Canada, which raises further questions about the dynamics of the relation between income inequality and its social consequences.

    In this paper we explore additional dimensions of the structure and change of income inequality in Canada between 1991 and 1996. We examine changing income inequality for the population over 65 as well as for the population as a whole, demonstrating that increases in income inequality are concentrated among those in the labour force years and that there has been little change (even some decline) in income inequality among the elderly. From a geographical perspective, increasing income inequality is significantly a large metropolitan issue and, as such, has a lesser impact on seniors as seniors are relatively more concentrated in smaller urban and rural areas.

    The fact that income inequality can change quite rapidly at the small area level raises some questions about the links to population health. Population health tends to be cumulative and reflects longer term rather than short-term circumstances. The empirical linkages need significantly more exploration to assess the mechanisms which underlie the observed relationships.

  57. Mid-life Patterns and the Residential Mobility of Older Men
    Linda M. Hayward
  58. There are numerous ways to better integrate the elderly into communities, many of which are contingent upon whether they will remain in their pre- retirement homes or make a move. Using a life course perspective, this paper establishes that residential history, social and family relations, socio- economic status, and health trajectories measured at mid-life, can be associated with moves in later life, either directly or indirectly through their effect on the mid-life residential trajectory. These relationships are examined with multi-variate Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models, using data from the Ontario Longitudinal Study of Aging. These findings suggest directions for future research to aid the development of public policy for the large "baby boom" cohorts who are just entering mid-life.

  59. The Retirement Incentive Effects of Canada's Income Security Programs
    Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber, and Kevin Milligan
  60. Like most other developed nations, Canada has a large income security system for retirement that provides significant and widely varying disincentives to work at older ages. Empirical investigation of their effects has been hindered by lack of appropriate data. We provide an empirical analysis of the retirement incentives of the Canadian Income Security (IS) system using a new and comprehensive administrative data base. We find that the work disincentives inherent in the Canadian IS system have large and statistically significant impacts on retirement. This suggests that program reform can play some role in responses to the fiscal crises these programs periodically experience. We also demonstrate the importance of controlling for lifetime earnings in retirement models. Specifications without these controls overestimate the effects of the IS system. Finally, our estimates vary in sensible ways across samples lending greater confidence to our estimates.

  61. The Economic Well-Being of Older Women Who Become Divorced or Separated in Mid and Later Life
    Sharon Davies and Margaret Denton
  62. This paper examines the economic well-being of women who become divorced or separated in mid and later life using 1994 data from the Statistics Canada Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. Three measures of economic well-being are considered: adjusted economic family total money income; before-tax low income cutoff; and ownership of dwelling. Women and men aged 65 and older in their first marriages are compared with women and men aged 65 and older divorced or separated women who had become divorced or separated at age 45 and older. Results show that women who become divorced or separated in mid and later life are more likely to be in poverty than married persons and men who divorce or separate in mid and later life. Persons who divorce or separate in mid and later life are less likely than married persons to live in a dwelling which is owned by a member of the household. Regression analyses show that receipt of pension income and earnings are positively associated with income for women who become divorced or separated in mid and later life. Implications for the Canadian legal and retirement income systems are discussed.

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