IESOP: Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population

Abstract of Research Paper No. 3
The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution
by Frank T. Denton, Christine H. Feaver, and Byron G. Spencer

This paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration so as to produce future populations characterised as "medium", "old", "young", "high immigration" and "low immigration". Supplementary calculations include growth rates, for both the total population and selected age groups, and various types of dependency ratios, including ones with a range of age-differentiated weights. It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the "dependency burden" is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom.

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Last updated: Dec 16, 1997.